Danny Salas

Chico, CA Interest Rates Market Report – Economic Influences – May 24, 2010

Spain's Troubles Show Signs Of Euro Weakness

Large Spanish Bank Fails

The continued financial troubles, in Europe, keep pushing Mortgage-Backed Securities to areas that I couldn’t even have dreamed of, one month ago.  CajaSur, one of Spain’s largest banks, has FAILED and has been taken over by The Bank of Spain, Spain’s Central Bank.

Economic Recovery

The National Association for Business Economics (NABE) has pronounced a few existing figures, to the market, today.  They are claiming that the U.S. Economy will grow at an unanticipated rate of 3.2%, compared to the expected 3.1%.  Some good news on the employment front, was that they expect unemployment to drop to 8.5% by the end of 2011.  These numbers aren’t as hopeful as our government’s numbers, however, they are probably more realistic.  They also pin-pointed the economic recovery date to June of 2009.

US Treasury Auction

Starting tomorrow, the U.S. Treasury will auction off $42 Billion of 2-Year Notes.  Wednesday will see $40 Billion of 5-Year Notes, and Thursday will show another $31 Billion of 7-Year Notes.  These auctions can cause wild market reaction, however, with Europe’s troubles on the wing, who knows what can happen!

It Doesn't Get Much Better Than This!

Locking Advice

With a ton of economic information and the auctions, for this week, I would be comfortable Locking!  With the completely unexpected values of Mortgage-Backed Securities, I would take advantage.

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Chico, CA Interest Rates Market Report – Economic Influences – May 13, 2010

Political Chess Game Could Damn Financially Troubled Europe

Will ECB Package Rescue?

Is the $1 Trillion European Central Bank (ECB) Rescue Package too little, too late?  The world is trying to figure that out.  It’s election time in Europe, and many feel as though the funds were held up, until after the election in Germany.  So, this political strategy may have damned Greece, and other European Countries, by the stalling too long.  Investors are trying to figure out the consequences of the delay, and how, or even if, the financial band-aid will fix the problem.  As investors ponder, money flows in and out of world economies widely effecting Stocks and Bonds.

$16 Billion 30-Year Note Auction

The uncertainty in Europe may benefit today’s Note Auction.  We’ll have to wait and see.  If the feeling is that the rescue package is too little, too late, than interest rates, in America, will benefit.  So much uncertainty!

Initial Jobless Claims

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits moved to 444,000.  Just slightly higher than the 440,000 expected, bringing the total unemployment recipients to 4.63 Million, not taking into consideration the 5.13 Million people receiving Emergency Unemployment Compensation.  I’m sorry folks, but until these numbers start looking better, expect housing to grow at a more modest pace.  Low rates are great, however, jobs will benefit real estate, more than lower rates.

Initial Jobless Claims Higher Than Expected

Locking Advice

We’re back in CAREFUL float mode!  It, again, doesn’t get much better than this, however, we’ll have to watch the Auction Results, closely, and carefully!

Related Must Reads

European Fix
Why Be Leery Of Yesterday’s Auction Success: A Look Into Why 30-Year Notes Are Harder To Auction
Interesting Side Note On Unemployment: How The Numbers Are Squewed

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Chico, CA Interest Rates Market Report – Economic Influences – May 12, 2010

Rates On The Rise

3-Year Notes Fare So-So

The 3-Year Treasury Note Auction fared only so well, yesterday.  And the market is poised for another adequate auction of the 10-Year Note Auction, scheduled for today.  Remember, the longer the term of that note, the harder to sell it at reasonably low rates.

European News

Spain announced that they have a financial strategy to narrow their budget deficit, and Germany reported a Gross Domestic Product report that was unexpected.  This caused Stocks to rise, all over the world, at the expense of bonds, and therefore, interest rates.

John Paulson Speaks

Hedge Fund Manger, John Paulson, the man who made billions of dollars calling the collapse of the housing market, in 2007, has indicated that he sees housing prices rise 3-5% this year, and 10-12% next year.  This is huge news, as he’s called a lot of other shots, too, and even if he’s fractionally correct, and housing prices only rise 1.5%, if someone buys a home for $100,000 and puts 10% down ($10,000), in one year, they will have gained $1,500 on that $10,000.  A 15% gain on your investment, is pretty darn good these days!

Treasury Auctions Are Somewhat Disappointing

Locking Advice

We moved to a locking status, as news from Europe continues to be positive, which is taking the sails out of US Treasury Auctions and Bonds offerings.

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Chico, CA Interest Rates Market Report – Economic Influences – May 10, 2010

More Volatility Coming From Europe

European Fix

The European Central Bank (ECU) and The International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced that they will be lending 750 Billion Euro ($955 Billion) to European Countries to help stabilize the Euro and restore confidence in European countries’ debts.  They have also agreed to start purchasing the debt, as well as government Bonds, of struggling countries like Spain, Portugal, Ireland, and you guessed it…Greece.

Eerily Similar To US

This strategy sounds awfully familiar to the United States Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), and $1.25 Trillion Mortgage-Backed Security Purchase Program.  Seems as though these tactics have, so far, worked for the United States, and therefore, Europe is interested in their temporary relief benefits, as well.  What is alarming is that these programs can be quite inflation causing, when the government unloads this massive debt in the future.  That’s all anyone needs, is hyper-inflation, all over the world…

Treasury Auctions

Tomorrow, the Treasury will start it’s auction of $38 Billion in 3-Year Treasury Notes, followed by Wednesday’s $24 Billion in 10-Year Notes, and finally Thursday’s auction of $16 Billion in 30-Year Treasury Notes.

Europe's Influx of Cash

Locking Advice

Careful Floating, as the Stock Market and Bond Market determine what the IMF and ECB’s influx of funds will do to these markets

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