Danny Salas

Chico, CA Interest Rates Market Report – Economic Influences – March 17, 2010

Happy St. Patrick’s Day

YOU DON’T WANT TO MISS THIS EVENT!!!

Scott St. John will be speaking at The Big Room At Sierra NevadaThe , Friday, March 26, 2010.  Scott is a 3rd-Term Governing Board Member of Freddie Mac.  You’ll have an opportunity to inquire into expected economic future of the United States, Real Estate and its REO future, and what’s happening behind the scenes that is making closing loans to more timely and difficult, these days.   REGISTER AT THE CHICO OR PARADISE BOARD OFFICES.  $10 includes appetizers.  $15.00 AT THE DOOR!

Lowest Rates In Three Months

The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that mortage applications fell by 1.9%, last week, even though we’ve experienced the lowest interest rates in three months.  That’s right!  Rates have not been this low since last December. 

Producer Price Index

The low inflationary reading was shrugged by investors, as anticipation that over the course of the next few months, that the price of gasoline will have a negative effect on the Producer Price Index. 

Floating Would Be Fine...

Locking Advice

I’d be taking advantage of these incredibly low interest rates.  We have quite a strong layer of support, however, why take chances, on such beautiful interest rates.  See our interest rate tracker on the front page of www.accessloans.net 

Related Must Reads

What’s The Big Room, at Sierra Nevada?
Knowledge is Power…Ask Freddie Mac Your Own Personal Question

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FHA MI Premium Increasing

1.75% Financed Premuim Is Going Away

Per HUD Mortgagee Letter 2010-02, the upfront mortgage insurance premium for FHA loans will increase to 2.25% on all loans for which the case number is assigned on or after April 5, 2010.

Chico, CA Interest Rates Market Report – Economic Influences – March 11, 2010

We Have Some Support

30-Year Treasury Note Auction

Investors are lost, not knowing what to do with their funds, until the results of the 30-Year Treasury Note Auction is in, which will be at about 10:00 a.m. PST.  The two earlier auctions, this week, went quite well.  However, as I write, we’re currently down 16 basis points.  Most banks will have a re-price for the worse for about .125% Point in cost.

Jobless Claims Better, But…

The number of people filing new unemployment claims, fell 6,000, this week, to a seasonally adjusted 462,000.  We won’t see the labor market correcting itself until we see less than 400,000 claims on a week-over-week basis.  However, there is some positiveness in these numbers, as a 159,000 decrease in Unemployment Compensation Claims and a 15,000 decrease in extended benefits programs, can hopefully set a pace for a labor recovery, somewhere down the line, however, we still have a long way to go.

China’s Impact On US

“My little China Girl, you should mess with me.  I’ll ruin everything you are!”  David Bowie’s famous line from “China Girl.”  Words to reflect on…China’s inflation numbers are getting close to scary.  China reported that their Consumer Prices rose 2.7%.  They had anticipated a 2.5% increase and feel as though 3.0% is quite inflationary.  Keep in mind that the United States comfort level, with their own inflation measures, is closer to 2.0%.  The problem, here, is that if China starts to feel their own inflationary concerns, they could curb that by not participating in purchasing US Bonds and Mortgage-Backed Securities.  This, of course, would cause interest rates to increase, as there wouldn’t be another large player in the Bond Market.

Retail Sales Released Tomorrow

With today’s Jobless Claims Numbers not really effecting rates too much, the auctions, China’s news, and tomorrow’s Retail Sales Numbers are what have moved rates, up and down, this week.  We’re expecting a 0.2% decrease in Retail Sales, for last month.  It could be a rate mover.

We've Broken Through Two Lines Of Support

Locking Advice

Since we have broken through the 100-Day Moving Average, and opened up the day, so far, below the 25-Day and 40-Day Moving Average, there seems to be a little support at the 50-Day Moving Average.  We may want to see if the 50-Day holds a little support, into tomorrow’s Retail Sales numbers.  So, I’d float, into the day, if we break below the 50-Day, Lock…if not…we may have an opportunity, first thing tomorrow.

Related Must Reads

China’s Credit Tightening
The Real Unemployment Numbers
Trend Lines / Moving Averages…What Do They Mean?

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Chico, CA Interest Rates Market Report – Economic Influences – February 25, 2010

Greece Could Cause Domino Effect

Greece III

I would imagine that a Greece III Movie might have this subtitle:  Worse than Greece II, Which Was Worse Than, Perhaps, Joe Dirt. Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s, is considering lowering Greece’s bond rating to kind of a Joe Dirt, status.  This is alarming because any financial institution that holds any Greek debt, will find their capital values plummet, causing their reserve requirements to be in jeopardy.  So, it effects the world, not just Greece.  Germany and France are the largest holder of Greek debt, however, remember the mortgage credit crisis? Remember how experts, sort of, shrugged off any concerns, before the hammer fell?

Sound Familiar?

Germany and France have their own financial troubles to worry about.  So, this problem is Greece exponential.  German Chancellor Angela Merkel stated that the Euro is…”in a difficult situation…for the first time since its introduction…but it will come through.”  Agreed, however, who will be effected?  Spain, Ireland, Portugal, and other European Nations are all in financial trouble.  Let’s hope they’re not heading down the same road, as Greece.

Initial Jobless Claims

500,000 people filed claims for unemployment benefits.  This is horrible!  It’s also closer to the reality that I’ve been talking about.  I hate being pessimistic, but I, also, appreciate truth.  And, the truth is…things are ugly!

Locking Advice

Back To Float Mode

With the Initial Jobless Claims and Greece’s finances throwing the Stock Market into a tailspin, it’s time to float, again.

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