Danny Salas

Archive for the 'Chico Home Loans' Category

Chico, CA Interest Rates Market Report – Economic Influences – March 11, 2010

We Have Some Support

30-Year Treasury Note Auction

Investors are lost, not knowing what to do with their funds, until the results of the 30-Year Treasury Note Auction is in, which will be at about 10:00 a.m. PST.  The two earlier auctions, this week, went quite well.  However, as I write, we’re currently down 16 basis points.  Most banks will have a re-price for the worse for about .125% Point in cost.

Jobless Claims Better, But…

The number of people filing new unemployment claims, fell 6,000, this week, to a seasonally adjusted 462,000.  We won’t see the labor market correcting itself until we see less than 400,000 claims on a week-over-week basis.  However, there is some positiveness in these numbers, as a 159,000 decrease in Unemployment Compensation Claims and a 15,000 decrease in extended benefits programs, can hopefully set a pace for a labor recovery, somewhere down the line, however, we still have a long way to go.

China’s Impact On US

“My little China Girl, you should mess with me.  I’ll ruin everything you are!”  David Bowie’s famous line from “China Girl.”  Words to reflect on…China’s inflation numbers are getting close to scary.  China reported that their Consumer Prices rose 2.7%.  They had anticipated a 2.5% increase and feel as though 3.0% is quite inflationary.  Keep in mind that the United States comfort level, with their own inflation measures, is closer to 2.0%.  The problem, here, is that if China starts to feel their own inflationary concerns, they could curb that by not participating in purchasing US Bonds and Mortgage-Backed Securities.  This, of course, would cause interest rates to increase, as there wouldn’t be another large player in the Bond Market.

Retail Sales Released Tomorrow

With today’s Jobless Claims Numbers not really effecting rates too much, the auctions, China’s news, and tomorrow’s Retail Sales Numbers are what have moved rates, up and down, this week.  We’re expecting a 0.2% decrease in Retail Sales, for last month.  It could be a rate mover.

We've Broken Through Two Lines Of Support

Locking Advice

Since we have broken through the 100-Day Moving Average, and opened up the day, so far, below the 25-Day and 40-Day Moving Average, there seems to be a little support at the 50-Day Moving Average.  We may want to see if the 50-Day holds a little support, into tomorrow’s Retail Sales numbers.  So, I’d float, into the day, if we break below the 50-Day, Lock…if not…we may have an opportunity, first thing tomorrow.

Related Must Reads

China’s Credit Tightening
The Real Unemployment Numbers
Trend Lines / Moving Averages…What Do They Mean?

What To Subscribe To:

Get Our Twitter Updates
Get Our Blog Blast
Connect With Us On Facebook

Chico, CA Interest Rates Market Report – Economic Influences – March 10, 2010

We've Broken Through Support

Treasury Auction Does Well

Yesterday’s Auction of 3-Year Treasuries Notes started off precariously.  By the end of the auction, though, it was quite well received and interest rates benefited, but only slightly.  Today, we have a huge $21 Billion in 10-Year Treasury Notes to be auctioned, and longer terms are harder to sell, as inflation factors can whittle down the value of that bond, over a longer 10-Year duration. 

Mutiny On The Policy

The List of Federal Reserve Board “Dissenters” is growing.  Remember Bernanke’s statements, last month, to keep interest rates low “for an extended period of time!”  Dallas Fed President Richard  Fisher, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans have all expressed their concern regarding the “extended period” of time.  Why?  Inflation!  The nemeses of interest rates!  This is alarming and could have an influence on the Carry-Trade.  You do NOT want to get caught up in a change in the carry trade.  It could cost an investment, millions!  The Fed’s in a tough position, right now, regarding when to move rates, so that we don’t experience too much inflation, too quickly.  Or moving them too quickly, and jeopardizing the economy and all the stimulus funds just submitted to Congress and The Senate, for approval.  I hope they don’t hold out too long…

Without Much Support...It's Time To Lock

Locking Advice

We’ve been in a lock mode for some time.  Even though yesterday’s auction fared well, we just don’t have much support to hold lower rates.  We’ve broken below the 100-Day Moving Average, so to climb back above it would take a lot of economic information that’s just not slated for release, this week.

Related Must Reads

The Real Jobs Numbers
Senate Approved Tax Credit Extension

What To Subscribe To:

Get Our Twitter Updates
Get Our Blog Blast
Connect With Us On Facebook

Chico, CA Interest Rates Market Report – Economic Influences – March 8, 2010

Careful Floating Into The Morning

Greece IV

It looks like the European Union (EU) will reluctantly bail out Greece.  The uncertainty, in Greece, has helped Mortgage-Backed Securities, as of late, however, the recent developments will definitely change the playing field, and put pressure on interest rates.  With no real economic reports, being released, until Thursday, we’ll have to watch the Stock Market and other technical factors to get a glimpse of where rates will head.

This Week’s Auctions

Tomorrow, $40 Billion in 3-Year Notes will be auctioned.  $21 Billion in 10-Year Notes followed by $13 Billion in 30-Year Notes will finish the week.

Careful Floating Into The Morning

Locking Advice

I like the idea of floating into the day and watching bonds, closely.  We may have to switch to a lock mode.  Earlier this morning, we were down 12 Basis Points, however, currently, we’re down 3.  Not too much movement, but enough to hold steady and see if rates and bond values can remain above the 100-Day Moving Average.

What To Subscribe To:

Get Our Twitter Updates
Get Our Blog Blast
Connect With Us On Facebook

Chico, CA Interest Rates Market Report – Economic Influences – March 5, 2010

Nailed It!

Right on the Button!  We watched rates, yesterday, until the afternoon.  Gained 19 basis points…had a re-price for the better two times, for a total of .25% and Locked!  On a $200,000 loan that would save a client $500 in fees, to get into a loan.  Not to mention that it transitioned us into a lower interest rate, by .125%.  So, again, saving clients over $5,400 in monthly payments, through the life of a 30 year fixed rate loan.  That’s why we watch the market, so closely.  I LOVE saving clients money!

Unemployment Rate Holds Steady

The Labor Department reported that the U.S. Economy only lost 36,000 jobs, last month.  They expected well over 50,000 loses, however, the bigger surprise was that the unemployment rate held at 9.7%.  That was surprising, as there are so many claims for Emergency Unemployment Benefits.  So, we’ve dropped over 50 basis points, this morning.  That’s $1,000, on a $200,000 loan.  A lot of money, for a first time home buyer!

Turning To A Lock Mode

Locking Advice

I’d Lock

What To Subscribe To:

Get Our Twitter Updates
Get Our Blog Blast
Connect With Us On Facebook