Danny Salas

Archive for March 11th, 2010

FHA MI Premium Increasing

1.75% Financed Premuim Is Going Away

Per HUD Mortgagee Letter 2010-02, the upfront mortgage insurance premium for FHA loans will increase to 2.25% on all loans for which the case number is assigned on or after April 5, 2010.

Chico, CA Interest Rates Market Report – Economic Influences – March 11, 2010

We Have Some Support

30-Year Treasury Note Auction

Investors are lost, not knowing what to do with their funds, until the results of the 30-Year Treasury Note Auction is in, which will be at about 10:00 a.m. PST.  The two earlier auctions, this week, went quite well.  However, as I write, we’re currently down 16 basis points.  Most banks will have a re-price for the worse for about .125% Point in cost.

Jobless Claims Better, But…

The number of people filing new unemployment claims, fell 6,000, this week, to a seasonally adjusted 462,000.  We won’t see the labor market correcting itself until we see less than 400,000 claims on a week-over-week basis.  However, there is some positiveness in these numbers, as a 159,000 decrease in Unemployment Compensation Claims and a 15,000 decrease in extended benefits programs, can hopefully set a pace for a labor recovery, somewhere down the line, however, we still have a long way to go.

China’s Impact On US

“My little China Girl, you should mess with me.  I’ll ruin everything you are!”  David Bowie’s famous line from “China Girl.”  Words to reflect on…China’s inflation numbers are getting close to scary.  China reported that their Consumer Prices rose 2.7%.  They had anticipated a 2.5% increase and feel as though 3.0% is quite inflationary.  Keep in mind that the United States comfort level, with their own inflation measures, is closer to 2.0%.  The problem, here, is that if China starts to feel their own inflationary concerns, they could curb that by not participating in purchasing US Bonds and Mortgage-Backed Securities.  This, of course, would cause interest rates to increase, as there wouldn’t be another large player in the Bond Market.

Retail Sales Released Tomorrow

With today’s Jobless Claims Numbers not really effecting rates too much, the auctions, China’s news, and tomorrow’s Retail Sales Numbers are what have moved rates, up and down, this week.  We’re expecting a 0.2% decrease in Retail Sales, for last month.  It could be a rate mover.

We've Broken Through Two Lines Of Support

Locking Advice

Since we have broken through the 100-Day Moving Average, and opened up the day, so far, below the 25-Day and 40-Day Moving Average, there seems to be a little support at the 50-Day Moving Average.  We may want to see if the 50-Day holds a little support, into tomorrow’s Retail Sales numbers.  So, I’d float, into the day, if we break below the 50-Day, Lock…if not…we may have an opportunity, first thing tomorrow.

Related Must Reads

China’s Credit Tightening
The Real Unemployment Numbers
Trend Lines / Moving Averages…What Do They Mean?

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