Danny Salas

Archive for September 4th, 2009

Chico, CA Interest Rates Market Report – Economic Influences – September 4, 2009

Rates Should Settle AFTER the Holiday

Jobs Numbers Are In

Why’s everyone so dang excited?  216,000 lost jobs reported last month.  However, they expected 230,000 jobs lost.  This whole idea of what’s expected, compared to what’s actually reported kinda cracks me up.

Why I’m Crackin’ Up

So, over the course of this past year, the Labor Department continues to revise previous months’ data.  Particulary regarding Jobs Lost.  Each month has been revised by about 50,000 Jobs.  And it’s NOT in the positive direction.  So, if you add the 50,000 expected when we revise these numbers, next month, we would have lost 266,000.  More than the 230,000 expected.  But the markets will have already moved, positioned themselves, and people will have made and, or lost their money in their investments, etc.  So,  not very funny, but I’m still laughin’.  The markets are taking this as good news, when really, I don’t think it’s so good.  BUT, we’ll have to ride the wave.  Today, Stocks will probably fare relatively well, before the Labor Day Holiday. 

The Revisionist

That’s why I have called myself a “revisionist,” in previous articles.  With markets revising themselves every month, I thought it a catchy label.

Highest Unemployment in 26 Years!

Now, this is the information that should be moving rates lower.  The unemployment rate spiraled to 9.7%.  The highest Unemployment in 26 years!  Since our current recession started, in December of 2007, total jobs lost are greater than we’ve seen since just after World War II.  Scary. 

Short Escrow?…Lock

So, as we just sit on the 200-Day Moving Average, I think for short periods, it’s a good time to lock.  But, again, if you’re in a long escrow, I feel like we’re going to see lower rates into October.  Have a Great Labor Day Weekend.  We’ll see ya Tuesday!